Jump it or Lump it. An analysis of risk
| Danger Level | ||||
| C o n f i d e n c e | Low | Medium | High | |
| Low | Moderate risk | High risk | Very high risk | |
| Medium | Low risk | Moderate risk | High risk | |
| High | Very low risk | Low risk | Moderate risk | |
Jump it or Lump it? Matt Hart thinks about taking risks.
You are hacking along a wooded section of trail, you turn a sharp bend and there to greet you, spread across your path is a freshly fallen tree! Do you dismount and carry your bike over it, or do you about-turn take a run-up and ride straight over it?
How high is it? About 40 centimetres (16 inches) off the ground, easily high enough to catch your chainrings on and send you flying over the bars.
Some of you will instinctively answer "carry", but some would be very tempted to take up the challenge. If you have ridden over hundreds of 50-centimetre high tree trunks in the past, you wouldn't think twice about it. Let's face it, you're hardly taking a risk are you? The chances are that you'll manage to get over it smoothly, but then again, you could lift your front wheel too early and end up planting it right where you don't want to, catapulting you awkwardly over the bars. You could land on a soft bit and roll neatly back to your feet, but in reality, you'll probably smack your knees on the handle bars on the way over, dropping heavily in an undignified heap on top of the offending obstacle. If you're really unlucky, the bike will land on top of you and one of the sharp bits will burrow its way into your hand. You never know, you might even break your neck! Some activities like this one carry an inherent risk, but if you are confident in your ability, you reduce this risk enormously.
So what is Risk?
According to Arthur Reber's Dictionary of Psychology, "Risk -taking" is defined as: a hypothesised personality dimension reflecting the degree to which an individual willingly undertakes actions that jeopardises something of personal value. The most important point to consider in this definition is "personal value", because although you might feel that another person is taking a risk, they may not consider their actions risky at all. Therefore, it is probably only possible to truly quantify your own personal risking, not someone else's.
To me, a humble cross-country rider, I think down-hillers are risk taking mad-nutters, but ask one of the elite guys doing a warm up run (at 10 times the speed I could) whether they were taking any risks, they'd probably say "not yet, probably later". If I attempted half their speed, on the same bike, in the same conditions, it would take a miracle for me to get down without an injury. The answer, as previously stated: These guys are super-confident and they minimise the risk, even though the situation is inherently dangerous. The diagram below illustrates this concept.
| Danger Level | ||||
| C o n f i d e n c e | Low | Medium | High | |
| Low | Moderate risk | High risk | Very high risk | |
| Medium | Low risk | Moderate risk | High risk | |
| High | Very low risk | Low risk | Moderate risk | |
Why do we take risks?
We take risks to improve. One prominent sports psychology lecturer once said to us "if you always do what you've always done, how can you expect to change"? Wise words that hold true to practically every situation in life, from a political party trying to gain more votes, to physical training and of course risk-taking. You have to push the boat out sometimes and take a chance, or even put your neck on the line and risk it all. It is through taking a number of small risks and succeeding that you build a reservoir of confidence. You then have a choice, either to stay at your current level of competence, or to risk again and move on...
What I used to do
I don't know about you lot, but when I was learning to Mountain Bike I couldn't believe what some of the experienced guys were doing (still can't when I watch downhillers). With something like a log hop though, once I'd decided to give it a go I wouldn't leave until I'd hopped it three times in a row, even if it meant staying there for an hour or so. My reason for staying until I did it three times was purely to satisfy myself that it wasn't a fluke the first time. Ride it three times in a row and you'll always be able to do it - that was my reckoning.
Hmmm. Just thought I'd share my analysis of risk with you. What's the biggest risk you've ever taken on a bike?
Matt Hart runs TORQ Fitness Training and Consultancy who have developed their range of performance nutrition products through a need to offer the highest standard of support to the athletes they work with. Matt’s philosophy is clear. His mission is for TORQ to produce the most highly effective performance nutrition on the market using natural and organic ingredients of a premium quality. He also believes that as TORQ has its roots firmly entrenched in Fitness Consultancy and cycling, this provides the company with its unique edge and integrity. For further information, visit